Suppose you are a zealous Democrat. Your friend makes a plausible-sounding argument for a Democratic position. You believe it; your raw experience (an argument that sounds convincing) and your context (the Democrats are great) add up to more-likely-than-not true. But suppose your friend makes a plausible-sounding argument for a Republican position. Now you're doubtful; the raw experience (a friend making an argument with certain inherent plausibility) is the same, but the context (i.e. your very low prior on the Republicans being right about something) makes it unlikely.
Still, this ought to work eventually. Your friend just has to give you a good enough argument. Each argument will do a little damage to your prior against Republican beliefs. If she can come up with enough good evidence, you have to eventually accept reality, right?
But in fact many political zealots never accept reality. It's not just that they're inherently skeptical of what the other party says. It's that even when something is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, they still won't believe it.
This blog post on personality basins, using language so familiar in the AI world, is very intriguing. There is a lot of similarity in how brains train, whether biologic or artificial. The author links to Scott Alexander's blog post about Trapped Priors. In that blog, there is this interesting insight:
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The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals says that doctors can sue when punished for expressing views about the COVID-19 illness that were against the government narrative. In a world where doctors are now just commodities, to obey the will of their employers or the government, this is a breath of fresh air.
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Until recently, ChatGPT on the Mac stored conversations in plain text. This is what happens when you offer something like AI to the public, without consumer protection.
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If you're using TextEdit on the Mac, stop immediately. You might be disclosing more than you realize. I can't tell if Apple patched this 2019 vulnerability.
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California is just crazy. No other way to describe it.
Washington’s Secretary of State (SOS) has removed a residency requirement for registering to vote enshrined in the state’s Constitution. Just one person decided to scrap something in Washington's constitution. Because it conflicted with a federal ruling. Why is it that Oregon claims that state law (HB 3115) hamstrings it from clearing homeless camps. Just change it, like Washington state's SOS did.
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The Lahaina fire exposed how many Mexican migrants there are in the state. Hispanics are now the fastest growing ethnic group currently at 11%. Also, Hawaii is seeing a surge in demand for SNAP and EBT benefits, and cannot keep up.
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