4 September 2024

It's been a year and a month since Lahaina went down in flames. What does it look like today? Well, the trash has been removed, but it still looks barren.  Did you donate to Lahaina Strong? Well, you might want to read this. Grifting everywhere, no?

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‘Nuclear clock’ breakthrough paves the way for super-precise timekeeping.  Nuclear clocks are supposed to be more accurate than atomic clocks. This one is based on energy shifts within the thorium-229 nucleus.

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Could all those amazing things reported on GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs just be due to sponsorship bias?  Well, this wouldn't be a new thing. You always have to be on the lookout for it. I'm far more worried about the bias we saw with the mRNA vaccines, where it seemed the entire scientific community in the U.S. was too petrified to even suggest that maybe we need to do more studies before just blindly recommending it. Like the Novavax vaccine, approved without any human trials. Or the lack of science behind the lockdowns, as they were implemented.

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Sunspots surge to 23 year high. Even greater than expectations. This is probably why climate is warmer – our sun is more active.

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What's going to happen with the animators that create all those wonderful animation films?  Well, they can't continue to do things the old way. But what's going to help them create better? Can any of them write code?

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Speaking of AI – now because their work is being checked to see if they were developed with generative AI, kids have to write differently – like a robot.  What irony.

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3 September 2024

Despite this article, we don't yet have Coordinated Lunar Time. It's still a standard under development. There is no publicly available clock that tells you what time it is on the moon yet. But scientists at the IAU think they have a system worked out.
Ashby and Patla worked on developing a system where anything can be calculated in reference to the center of mass of the Earth/Moon system. Or, as they put it in the paper, their mathematical system "enables us to compare clock rates on the Moon and cislunar Lagrange points with respect to clocks on Earth by using a metric appropriate for a locally freely falling frame such as the center of mass of the Earth–Moon system in the Sun's gravitational field."
The center of mass between the Earth and Moon is located between the surface of the earth, closer to the surface than the center, but still subsurface. Taking the Sun into account complicates things further. But the math is doable.
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Interesting point of view. It says that people avoid doing what their natural talent is, because it seems ordinary. So they pursue some other skillset to challenge themselves, and rarely rise above mediocrity. He calls this Rothbard's Law. People often have to do something that pays the bills, and don't occupy themselves with an activity just because it's a challenge. You have to earn money, and innate talent isn't always there. But it helps if you can find a job that allows you to use your innate talents and profit from it.

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+That sucks. Looks like one can't uninstall the recall "feature" of Windows 11 after all. If I were a Windows user, I'd switch. 

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Eric Schmidt gave an eye-opening talk at Stanford last week. Supposedly the video was taken down at his request but this guy had a copy and posted it back up.  Wow, what an eye-opener. Imagine being able to tell an advanced LLM to clone TikTok for you, at least the parts you're interested in. Or to clone a reasonably copy of Google for you. No need to code it yourself. We're not there yet, but this is going to be a huge vulnerability for software-only companies that will be hard to stop. Take a listen...
You may have an opinion about Eric Schmidt, but he's smart and has interacted with a lot of other smart people, which has shaped his thoughts, and his viewpoints are heard by powerful people, so it's worth hearing what he has to say.

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What causes gold nuggets to form? Turns out that it's been a bit of a mystery. Now, it's believed to be a result of piezoelectricity from quartz crystals.

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This graph has been making the rounds on financial sites:
It's from FDIC's quarterly banking report.  It sure doesn't look like the banking sector is in good shape. And I'm not sure how well the FDIC is going to be able to handle another SVB going under.  The FDIC ends the report saying:
In conclusion, the banking industry continued to show resilience in the first quarter, as net income rebounded, asset quality metrics remained generally favorable, and the industry’s liquidity was stable. 

However, ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, continuing inflationary pressures, volatility in market interest rates, and emerging risks in some bank loan portfolios pose significant downside risks to the banking industry.  These issues, together with funding and margin pressures, will be matters of close supervisory attention by the FDIC in 2024.  

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2 September 2024

The fall of StackOverflow. Yes, A.I. is partly to blame, but anyone that has used StackOverflow is familiar with another important reason. The forum structure eventually breaks down over time. I can't count how many times I did a search and got results that were out of date. I got responses that described solutions based on older operating system versions, where the options were no longer there. Or on outdated libraries where the solutions were deprecated. Over time, S.O. became useless. Eventually I went to Perplexity or Claude 3.5 for answers. I've noticed that in other software platforms, a forum is set up, and that's all the tech support they provide. You search for answers and scan an endless series of irrelevant posts, looking for something remote addressing your concerns.

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Canary in the coal mineDollar General warns poorer US consumers are running out of money.  And who wants four more years of the same governance. (Oh, but there must be national access to abortion up to full-term, right?)

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This new paper says "a daily cup of lightly roasted coffee could tip the scales in favor of better body composition for those struggling with weight, with slight yet promising reductions in fat and boosts in muscle mass". But look at the graphs: the first red flag is that the y-axis doesn't start at zero. If it did, you wouldn't notice any difference.  The second red flag is that the error bar confidence intervals overlap. The third red flag is that regular roasted coffee didn't do consistently as well as light-roasted coffee. Now a dose-effect relationship doesn't always hold, but when it doesn't, it increases the likelihood that what you're observing is just random fluctuations. I suspect it's the latter. Fourth red flag is that they used 2 scoops of regular roast and 4 scoops of lightly-roasted coffee without explaining why. And if you look at Table 5, regular roasted coffee seems to be the winner. That's what I'd rather drink.

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When asked whether “my schoolwork challenges me in a good way,” just under half of middle and high school students agree, with only 14% agreeing strongly.
What’s concerning is that students say they feel much less engaged in school than they did just last year, compared to Gallup’s 2023 Gen Z survey.
...about half of Gen Z students say they plan to go to college, their K-12 schools spend a lot of time talking about it — way more than they talk about alternatives.
Maybe the guys can go to college for reasons Elon Musk recommended.

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Be careful if you have apps on your phone from Google, Amazon or Facebook. They may be actively listening to your conversations to sell you ads. I don't have an Android phone for that reason.

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1 September 2024

A bad idea. Concerns raised about ranked-choice voting. I don't believe that most people really understand how bad this idea is. It's replacing a flawed election system with one that has real problems. See the video I posted yesterday.

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"Republicans pounce".  Is that the best you can do, Oregonian? This isn't the best reason to reject Janelle Bynum. It's this:
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Typical NY Times. Some book critic thinks that the U.S. Constitution is dangerous. The dumbest generation thinks they know better than the Founding Fathers. "One of the biggest threats to America’s politics might be the country’s founding document." Yeah, I think that's a feature, not a bug. Thank goodness the Left has been hamstrung in wanting to silence "misinformation", censor "hate speech" and take away our means of self-defense and making the government think twice about enacting dangerously stupid legislation like California.

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Speaking of California, NY Times has an article about the corruption that is California politics. We don't need to bring that to Oregon or Washington, and certainly not to Washington D.C.

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Adult use of cannabis, hallucinogens remain at historically high levels. This is why a lot of people avoid downtown Portland and Seattle. Maybe people thought that we'd just see a lot of mellow people everywhere. Nope, we're seeing a whole lot of a different kind of people.

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31 August 2024

They're here. Oregon Health Authority discovered the presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito – in July, but waited until now to release the information. It was found in southern Oregon in the town of Talent. This mosquito is usually just a problem in the southeastern U.S. and south of the border. It is a vector for yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. They tend to be out in the evening, so watch out.

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Crap. Tina Kotek appointed two new members to OHSU's board of directors: a womens issues social justice activist and the treasurer for the AFSCME Local 328 chapter.  This is typical Kotek. OHSU is going to go farther afield of being a center of medical research excellence, and will just be a mouthpiece for progressive issues. I think OHSU's board should just be composed of key doctors and researchers and select community leaders. That's it. But that vision has long been abandoned, and here we are.

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Is democracy mathematically impossible? This is a nice review of different voting systems, and why Ranked Choice Voting can lead to outcomes completely opposite of what should be the expected outcome. Take a look:

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Iron oxide may be a cheap and safe way to store hydrogen. Kinda heavy, though.

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Semaglutide and other GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs could slow down aging. And this is in people, unlike metformin, which showed longevity effects in mice, nematodes and fruit flies.

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Is deliberate practice all you need to become an expert? Like what Malcolm Gladwell said in hias book, OutliersSadly no. You need to be intrinsically talented, too.

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Wikipedia is indeed a liberally-biased tool.  Use with caution.

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How to make your lithium batteries last longer.  That first charge is really important.

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Longstanding gap filled!  Scientists can now make tiny yellow, orange and green lasers, now. Compact ones, too.

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30 August 2024

AnandTech has shut down. I never visited them regularly, but I have heard of them. I just wonder if this is the start of a new trend – the shutting down of tech news websites much as we saw after the dotcom boom ended.  This has been so typical of the Biden-Harris era: no growth or expansion of nice things. Only shortages and shutdowns.

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Trying to control speech. Now radiologists are being told what words to use and not to use when reading ultrasounds, so as not to trigger people. So Orwellian, but it's happening so often, like censorship, that it's being done with ease, and only a few push back.

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UK Royal Society comes to the conclusion that even solving the battery problem isn't going to solve the green energy problem. When the wind stops blowing and there isn't enough sunshine for solar power, there will still be a substantial energy shortage. And they discover that hydrogen isn't the answer either, despite all the greenies suggesting it be used instead because you can burn it in air without creating carbon dioxide. But –
Hydrogen is also hard to move around. To get the gas to move through pipes, it has to be compressed and pushed along using compressors. This process requires energy: the losses in moving hydrogen through pipes are ten times greater for hydrogen than for methane; up to 30%. In other words you need to use up almost a third of your gas just moving it from A to B.
The infrastructure for hydrogen does not exist, neither for the most part do the production facilities and they will cost billions to build. Then the underlying cost of storing hydrogen is probably at least four times that of storing methane. Huge amounts of energy are lost in each stage of the process due to the fundamental properties of hydrogen.
Current technology does not have anything ready to substitute for petroleum-based fuels.

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In 2022, the federal government reported that, in samples seized by the Drug Enforcement Administration, average levels of tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC—the psychoactive compound in weed that makes you feel high—had more than tripled compared with 25 years earlier, from 5 to 16 percent. That may understate how strong weed has gotten. Walk into any dispensary in the country, legal or not, and you’ll be hard-pressed to find a single product advertising such a low THC level. Most strains claim to be at least 20 to 30 percent THC by weight; concentrated weed products designed for vaping can be labeled as up to 90 percent.
In the past few years, reports have swelled of people, especially teens, experiencing short- and long-term “marijuana-induced psychosis,” with consequences including hospitalizations for chronic vomiting and auditory hallucinations of talking birds. Multiple studies have drawn a link between heavy use of high-potency marijuana, in particular, and the development of psychological disorders, including schizophrenia...
“It’s entirely possible that this new kind of cannabis—very strong, used in these very intensive patterns—could do permanent brain damage to teenagers because that’s when the brain is developing a lot..."
You don't say....

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You won't have to take the bar exam to be a lawyer in Washington state, just like Oregon. Because the DEI progressives in charge, rather than trying to improve educational quality, instead remove qualifications put in place to ensure that we have quality practitioners. Don't they know that having bad attorneys is just going to lead to the need for more trials to remedy bad law? Yes, bad law begets more work for attorneys, and doesn't help the public.

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29 August 2024

Some progress against pancreatic cancer. Using lipid nanoparticles containing agonists of the STING and TRL4 pathways, along with the MEK inhibitor trametinib and the CDK 4/6 inhibitor palbociclib, they were able to induce an immune response against pancreatic adenocarcinoma in mice. Eight out of nine mice saw tumor necrosis and shrinkage, with two complete responses. Original study here.

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Brain Scientists Finally Discover the Glue that Makes Memories Stick for a Lifetime.  It requires constant interaction between two molecules PKMzeta and KIBRA.
“If you block KIBRA from PKMzeta, you’ll erase a memory that’s a month old.” The specific molecules will have been replaced many times during that month, he adds. But, once established, the interaction maintains memories over the long term as individual molecules are continually replenished.
This might not only help preserve memories in people with memory issues, but might be applied to helping erase memories selectively.

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Fibrin drives thromboinflammation and neuropathology in COVID-19. Some patients with COVID-19 complications are recommended to take aspirin.  There are some studies to support this.  Maybe this finding is associated with this observation.

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LLMs select random numbers much like humans do. This may seem hard to explain though, in terms of how transformers work. Unless in the training corpora, the token sequence of "pick a random number" is most often followed by the token for "7". 

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An insight into medical thinking. In this cardiology substack is a discussion of how performing percutaneous coronary intervention, such as stenting and angioplasty, became the norm even though it has been difficult to show survival benefit. In fact, mortality may be doubled with intervention. Read the insightful comments.

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People are consistently and confidently wrong about those with opposing views. This study examined how people assume that your stance on one topic reliably predicts a stance on another topic. Many people don't group-think, but I think many do. But the association is not that strong enough to bank on all the time. Some of the questions are too simplistic, though. While I agree that all women should have access to legal abortion, I am against general abortion in the third trimester. That's more like infanticide. And asking whether immigrants are beneficial to society is also naïve. It really depends on the immigrant. And in many cases we don't have any process for evaluating an immigrant, especially under this administration's policies.

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SCOTUS once again stops Biden-Harris student loan re-assignment to taxpayers. No wonder they have trouble finding jobs to pay off their loans, when they take classes like this. It's not my fault that the economy is so lousy. University educations used to be an investment. Now they seem to be of questionable value.

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Scientists have discovered a plastic that decomposes more quickly. Hope it doesn't dissolve too soon, though. It could get messy.

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It's possible to use ambient WiFi and Bluetooth signals to power small devices.  Sounds nice, but I wonder if someone's going to take advantage of this and weaken WiFi or Bluetooth signals that are supposed to be there. I could see something like this being used for malicious purposes.

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Portland saw spikes in shoplifting and overdose deaths in 2023. No surprises here. We could see this for ourselves. There won't be any improvement until current leadership is replaced.

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Oregon's top economists have quit. Rats leaving a sinking ship? Don't want to live in a state like Oregon? And hey, don't let the experience of New Jersey be what happens to Oregonians as well.  Holy crap! What harm Dem governors can do!

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Music to help you focus. Apparently backed by science. Haven't tried it yet.

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Three years ago, it seemed like the U.S. had a real shot at hitting Biden’s ambitious target of building 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind. Then came the perfect storm of supply chain bottlenecks, rising inflation, and high interest rates. Since then, offshore wind developers have cancelled more than 7 gigawatts (GW) of planned projects on the East Coast.
Money, energy and time all wasted. Biden-Harris can't do anything right it seems. All the three factors were of their own doing.

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28 August 2024

Almost half of FDA-approved AI medical devices are not trained on real patient data. Well that's not good.

"Although AI device manufacturers boast of the credibility of their technology with FDA authorization, clearance does not mean that the devices have been properly evaluated for clinical effectiveness using real patient data,

One gets the sense that shortcuts are being taken. Meanwhile the American College of Physicians put out a position paper on the use of AI in healthcare. It's basically a broad statement that says that AI should be safe, and avoid harms such as bias, and that there is sufficient oversight. It's an ethics statement, really. I was hoping it would be a guide on how to use AI in the healthcare field.

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In politics, however, safety be damned. Cheyenne, WY is seriously considering an AI mayor.  This probably started out as a joke, but many are not laughing now.

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What to do if you get lost in the wild. Important for hikers that go in the woods. I got the SABANI portable charger.

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Some Redditors are griping about University of Washington's Medical Center.  Several of them seem to think that it all stems from shortages of doctors due to greedy medical schools and residency programs that don't want to expand slots. While there may be some truth to that, it's gotten worse only in the past few years, especially with COVID-19. A lot of doctors and nurses left medicine, leaving the rest to struggle with short staffing. There's quite a lot of stress with finances being down, doctors not getting pay raises like nurses, because they don't strike. Medicare is lowering reimbursements. Most doctors are employees and are being told how hard to work. It used to be that paying off medical school and college debt was doable, but now, it's not clear that it is. And meanwhile you see other people living their lives with less stress and being able to enjoy wealth and family time. The smart people are in research fields and have less clinical time, or they go into other fields than medicine. Only those with old-time notions of what being a doctor is like tend to go into the field. Be nice to doctors and nurses – they are doing their best, and are struggling, too.

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Another mushroom benefit - it's a source of ergothioneine. It's an antioxidant whose significance was only realized about 9 years ago. I love porcini and shiitake mushrooms.

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Cal Tech is now admitting more women than men.  Was that deliberate? Or is it just the way it happened? It's California, so you never know.

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Is the Capture button on the iPhone 16 a big deal?  The iPhone 15 had an action button and I don't recall that it made a big splash.

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This is the opposite of what I expected. Smarter people have less mental health issues. Those who have lower cognitive ability tend to have more mental disorders. And there are certainly a lot of people with mental disorders lately.
Somewhat related: being politically obnoxious is associated with having the Dark Triad personality profile. That's having narcissistic, psychopathic and Machiavellian traits.

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This is interesting: there's a lot of similarity between Christ and Krishna.

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The Pacific Northwest bee ecosystem is diverse and there are a lot of new species being discovered. Makes you wonder if something's going on.

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27 August 2024

Not so fast. CIDRAP published this report stating that a medical study showed that getting myocarditis from the mRNA vax is less severe than getting it from the virus itself. But let's take a look at the study itself.  The time span of the study is December 2020 to June 2022 so it covered the period of all the strains, from Wuhan ancestral to omicron. But look how they define myocarditis from COVID-19 infection vs from the vax:

Individuals admitted to the hospital for myocarditis within 7 days after receipt of any dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine were categorized as having postvaccine myocarditis.  Individuals admitted to the hospital for myocarditis within 30 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection and who did not receive an mRNA vaccination within the preceding 7 days were categorized as having post–COVID-19 myocarditis.

How was 7 days determined as the cutoff? I've always felt that those who have had COVID-19 and later get the vax have it harder, because the immune system attacks spike protein, which the vax places onto the surface of myocardial cells. I bet they didn't even check to see if a vaxxed person had COVID-19 before (natural immunity). This may be why the cohort considered unvaxxed and COVID-19 infected had a higher rate of hospitalization. And I always am suspect of studies that don't take into account all the problems after the first 14 days after the first jab. This is why trust in the medical profession has fallen.

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Sad. A Pittsburgh cardiologist wrote a paper that said this:

“Evolution to strategies that are neutral to race and ethnicity is essential. Ultimately, all who aspire to a profession in medicine and cardiology must be assessed as individuals on the basis of their personal merits, not their race and ethnic identities.”

In response, his colleagues succumbed to ignorant cries of "racism" and he was fired. Uninformed mob mentality prevailed. Well, the good doctor is suing. Good for him!
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China has found a way to get around roadblocks on NVIDIA chips. They just rent them. I disagree with Mish – sanctions work sometimes. Iran suffered under Trump's sanctions. Only after Biden released their money were they able to cause havoc in the Middle East. 

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Oregon in the news again. Once again, it's not for anything to be proud of. It's the La Hacienda scandal, which gives housing down-payments to illegal immigrants. Apparently it's attracted so much negative attention and outcry that they're now opening up funds for American citizens, too. Or so they say. But that's not enough, is it? Take their funding away! Give it to veterans!

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Moar vaccinations! After the Dem convention, there was an outbreak of COVID. Well, well, huh?

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Energy demand from data centers growing faster than West can supply. Tech companies are not planning to slow down. What will the Dem governors do? Mandate more windmill and solar panel farms? Maybe they should look into underground nuclear power plants.

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Over 1700 frozen viruses were found in a Tibetan glacier.  What does this mean?

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It's not clear to me what Apple Intelligence will really do to my daily workflow. I really sense that Apple felt pressured to have to do something with AI, because it was the craze. But having personal experience with AI, I don't feel that it has been ready to do more than just limited applications. I don't want AI on my phone, watch, computer, etc. I don't think it's ready yet. I don't think the privacy issues have been worked out.
...even anonymised data can sometimes be linked back to you if it’s specific enough, Woollven warns. “So while Apple isn’t directly storing your conversations in a way that’s linked to you, there’s still a small risk that a very specific query could potentially be connected to you.”
Don't give me another way I might get myself into trouble.

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Being a weekend warrior in terms of physical activity can still be beneficial, if you do it regularly. Being inactive is the worst.

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If you're a female startup CEO, being attractive is advantageous over unattractive competitors. The hard truth is, looks matter in this world.

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Nearly half of OpenAI AGI safety staff as departed the company. So is it a priority anymore?

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26 August 2024

New hidden backdoor in Microsoft Windows 11. So many security flaws in Microsoft products lately, it seems.

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RFID cards made by the Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group can be easily cloned.  All it takes is close proximity and a few minutes.

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A drug capable of inducing suspended animation can slow down metabolism and hopefully save live in medical emergencies. This is why people are currently chilled to low temperatures during cardiac arrest.

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A DNA damage response protein C (DdrC) was found in a bacterium called Deinococcus radiodurans. The gene could be delivered to people with DNA damage mutations, and potentially lead to prevention of cancer.

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OHSU has to cut back on rolfing and massage cancer services at the Beaverton Cancer Center to save money. You know, maybe if Danny Jacobs hadn't given away so much money frivolously during his tenure, and gave back some of his generous salary and retirement account money, the institution could meet its mission goals without having to sacrifice so much.

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This guy refuses to use LLMs to help him code. I understand the sentiment as I felt that way once.  But using LLMs is really not much different from consulting with Stack Exchange, and you learn so much from seeing how other attack a problem. Also, not wasting time correcting arcane errors is time better spent.

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